Archived dispatch

How does median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work in practice, and which published material supports the explanation?

Lowconfidence— 1 sub-claim remains below the evidence threshold

9/30/2026, 9:00:24 AM · llm:deepseek:deepseek-v4-flash

§ IIThe reading1 cited
Lowconfidence— 1 sub-claim remains below the evidence thresholddeep researchpreview plan 2/2 claimsportfolio 2/2 · evidence 50%

> ⚠ Low confidence — 1 sub-claim remains below the evidence threshold within budget. Treat this as provisional.

Median and p95 Arc settlement measurements are reported as latency statistics from a benchmark of batched x402 settlements on the Arc testnet: across thousands of submitBatch calls, batched settlements finalized in roughly 180 milliseconds, with a measured median of 178ms and a p95 of 240ms . In practice this means the median represents the typical settlement time and the p95 represents the upper-tail time within which 95% of settlements completed, both derived from the same set of submitBatch calls . The explanation is supported by the Arc Settlement Benchmarks material, which reports these figures and attributes the sub-second confirmation to Arc's BFT consensus, noting that a Gateway-batched payment confirms in well under a quarter second and is not block-time-bound like an Ethereum L1 transaction . By contrast, the Web Payments Review material offers a different reading — that an x402 payment takes about 15 seconds to settle, similar to an Ethereum L1 block time, because each payment is its own transaction waiting to be mined into a block — but this describes a per-transaction, block-mined model rather than the batched Arc settlement measurements, and it does not report median or p95 figures. The sources disagree on x402 settlement timing, and the Arc Settlement Benchmarks figures are more specific, internally consistent, and directly measured on Arc testnet, so they are the trusted basis for the median/p95 explanation .

Evidence ledger — quotes verified before rewards

  1. How do median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work in practice?

    60%
    “Across thousands of submitBatch calls on Arc testnet, x402 batched settlements finalize in roughly 180 milliseconds (measured median 178ms, p95 240ms).” [S1] Measuring x402 settlement latency on Arc
    “Arc's BFT consensus delivers sub-second finality, so a Gateway-batched payment confirms in well under a quarter second — it is not block-time-bound the way an Ethereum L1 transaction is.” [S1] Measuring x402 settlement latency on Arc
  2. Which published material supports the explanation of how median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work?

    0%

    No reward-qualifying evidence

Cited sources and planned rewards

Helpful?
Spent$0.015
To creators100%
Decisions0 bought · 2 cached · 19 skipped
llm:deepseek:deepseek-v4-flashlive on Arc testnet
Decision log · 51 steps
§ IThe decision$0.015 settled / $0.03
50%$0.015 under cap
Decompose

Breaking down: "How does median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work in practice, and which published material supports the explanation?"

Decompose

Identified 2 research target(s) to investigate; these are not established facts

Decompose

Deep mode: up to 4 paid/cached reads plus one bounded gap-expansion pass when needed.

Discover

Discovered 21 verified source(s)

Discover

Recalled 36 past runs on this subject — how these sources performed when they were available.

Discover

ERC-8004 reputation loaded — composite scores on this subject.

Pre-check

Claim-aware portfolio selected 2/2 positive proposal(s): 2 cached + 0 fresh, predicting 2/2 claim(s) above the evidence floor with $0.000000/$0.015000 fetch USDC reserved.

Pre-check

Free-preview pre-check maps an actionable source to every sub-claim (2/2); paid reading may proceed within the budget.

DecideCACHE
Arc Settlement Benchmarks — Measuring x402 settlement latency on Arc$0.003 · EV 90%

Arc Settlement Benchmarks is the single most on-point source: its preview explicitly covers benchmark methodology and results for x402 batched-settlement finality on Arc testnet, which is exactly how median/p95 latency measurements are produced in practice. Highest citation rate on this subject (20/26 runs, 77%, avg weight 0.76). Already cached, so reuse free. — selected for the claim-aware evidence portfolio (targets claims 1, 2; 0 fetch USDC, 1 attention slot).

DecideCACHE
Web Payments Review — How long do x402 payments take to finalize?$0.002 · EV 45%

Web Payments Review's preview directly addresses end-to-end x402 settlement timing, a useful secondary/confirming source for how latency percentiles are framed, though its reputation is weak (8/100, 33% citation). Cached, so free to reuse. — selected for the claim-aware evidence portfolio (targets claim 1; 0 fetch USDC, 1 attention slot).

DecideSKIP
Onchain Micropayments Digest — Nanopayments and the $0.000001 floor$0.005 · EV 40%

Onchain Micropayments Digest covers batched settlement and gas-efficient primitives, the mechanism underlying Arc's batched x402 settlement whose latency is measured; strong reputation (60/100, 75% citation). Cached, free. — cached bytes are free, but this read does not clear the attention gate (EV 0.40, minimum 0.45, with a required claim target).

DecideSKIP
Keryx Engineering (first-party) — Recovering a Keryx paid research job$0.002 · EV 35%

Keryx first-party full text on paid research jobs and evidence checks may support the 'which published material supports the explanation' sub-claim by documenting how Keryx sources/validates measurements; 100% citation on this subject. Cached, free. — cached bytes are free, but this read does not clear the attention gate (EV 0.35, minimum 0.45, with a required claim target).

DecideSKIP
Stablecoin Ledger — Why USDC settles instantly onchain$0.003 · EV 10%

Stablecoin Ledger only asserts USDC settles in seconds on L2s; it never discusses median/p95 measurement methodology and has been read 11 times on this subject with zero citations. Not worth even a cached read.

DecideSKIP
Agent Economy Weekly — x402 turns HTTP 402 into an agent payment rail$0.004 · EV 10%

Agent Economy Weekly's abstract is about x402 as a payment rail generally, not settlement latency percentiles; weak track record (1/3 citations, avg weight 0.15).

DecideSKIP
Distributed Systems Notes — Idempotency keys prevent double-spends$0.003 · EV 10%

Distributed Systems Notes covers idempotency keys, unrelated to how median/p95 settlement latency is measured; only tangential at best.

DecideSKIP
Garden & Soil Monthly — Building a no-dig raised bed$0.002 · EV 0%

Gardening content, wholly irrelevant to Arc settlement measurement.

DecideSKIP
Retro Game Hardware — Recapping a 1990s console$0.002 · EV 0%

Retro console repair, wholly irrelevant to Arc settlement measurement.

DecideSKIP
Stripe Blog — New currency capabilities for global businesses to cut FX costs$0.002 · EV 10%

Stripe FX/multicurrency settlement is a different rail and says nothing about Arc x402 latency percentiles; Stripe Blog has never been cited on this subject.

DecideSKIP
Ethereum Foundation Blog — The triage is the product: running AI agents against Ethereum's protocol code$0.002 · EV 5%

Ethereum Foundation post on AI triage of protocol code is unrelated to settlement latency measurement.

DecideSKIP
Cointelegraph.com News — Crypto payments barely register among euro area merchants, ECB finds$0.002 · EV 10%

Cointelegraph ECB merchant-acceptance survey is about crypto payment adoption, not median/p95 settlement measurement; low reputation (16/100).

DecideSKIP
Latent.Space — Ontologies Are So Back: Why AI Agents Are Reviving the Semantic Web$0.004 · EV 5%

Latent.Space on ontologies and semantic web is off-topic; read 6 times on this subject, never cited.

DecideSKIP
Simon Willison's Weblog — Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive$0.003 · EV 5%

Simon Willison post on Anthropic model adoption is off-topic, and metadata_only with 0 plaintext bytes offers no usable content.

DecideSKIP
Hugging Face - Blog — TutorMoments: Do AI tutors know when to help and when to hold back?$0.003 · EV 5%

Hugging Face AI-tutor post is off-topic and metadata_only with no readable text.

DecideSKIP
Vitalik Buterin's website — Low-risk defi can be for Ethereum what search was for Google$0.004 · EV 10%

Vitalik's low-risk DeFi essay is about Ethereum DeFi risk, not Arc x402 latency percentiles, and is metadata_only with 0 plaintext bytes.

DecideSKIP
The Coinbase Blog - Medium — In response to the Wall Street Journal$0.003 · EV 5%

Coinbase's WSJ rebuttal concerns proprietary trading allegations, unrelated to settlement measurement.

DecideSKIP
Decrypt — Putin Signs Russia's First Crypto Law: Trading Is Legal, Payments Stay Banned$0.002 · EV 5%

Decrypt's Russia crypto-law story is about regulation, not Arc settlement latency methodology.

DecideSKIP
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data — Crypto Long & Short: Inside the chain settling $150 billion of stablecoins a week$0.002 · EV 15%

CoinDesk piece on Tron's stablecoin settlement volume is about a different chain and aggregate throughput, not median/p95 Arc measurement; CoinDesk has only 11% citation here. Not cached, so would cost a toll for marginal value.

DecideSKIP
Inner Axiom — The Codex — The Journey of the Soul$0.002 · EV 0%

Esoteric soul cosmology, wholly irrelevant.

DecideSKIP
Conzit Labs — The Decline of Space Horror Films: A Genre Lost in Orbit$0.002 · EV 0%

Space horror film essay, wholly irrelevant.

Fetch

Agent spend wallet ready: 0x29028Fe1122E17Fe7863A22701e863FE4DaE1aFB (balance sufficient)

Fetch

Reused cached Arc Settlement Benchmarks — Measuring x402 settlement latency on Arc (free) — S1

Fetch

Reused cached Web Payments Review — How long do x402 payments take to finalize? (free) — S2

Re-evaluate

Sub-claim "How do median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work in pr…": 50% covered by S1 — S1 reports concrete measured values on Arc testnet (median 178ms, p95 240ms across thousands of submitBatch calls) and ties them to x402 batched settlement finality, giving a partial practical answer. However, it does not explain the measurement methodology itself—how median and p95 are computed, what is being timed (submitBatch call to finality), sampling/window, or how p95 is derived—so the 'how it works in practice' part is only partially covered.

Re-evaluate

Sub-claim "Which published material supports the explanation of how med…": 40% covered by S1 — S1 is the only supplied material that directly reports Arc median/p95 settlement figures and is the relevant supporting source. But it is an abstract excerpt and does not itself explain the measurement procedure, so it supports the reported numbers rather than a full explanation of how the measurements work. S2 is a conflicting Ethereum-L1-style claim (~15s) and does not support the Arc median/p95 explanation.

Re-evaluate

Coverage is partial (0.4–0.5) for both sub-claims, but no affordable skipped source plausibly fills the specific gap. The skipped items concern nanopayment floors, Keryx job recovery, USDC finality, x402 as a rail, idempotency, or unrelated topics; none addresses Arc median/p95 measurement methodology. With only $0.015 remaining and no targeted source available, buying more is not justified.

Sufficiency

Final check — "How do median and p95 Arc settlement measurements work in pr…": 60% assessed by S1

Sufficiency

Final check — "Which published material supports the explanation of how med…": 50% assessed by S1, S2

Sufficiency

Final coverage assessment — S1 directly reports median and p95 settlement latency measurements for x402 batched settlements on Arc testnet (median 178ms, p95 240ms), which answers how the measurements work in practice at the level of reported values and context. S2 provides a conflicting general claim about x402 settlement timing but does not address Arc median/p95 measurement methodology. The requested explanation of the measurement method or procedure is not provided by either source; only the resulting median and p95 figures are given. The assessment does not establish a complete supported answer for every requested part.

Synthesize

Synthesizing a grounded answer from 2 source(s)…

Evidence

Relevance review returned; only checked excerpts can retain support, and review cannot raise it.

Adjudicate

⚖️ Sources disagreed on x402 settlement latency on Arc — S1 Batched x402 settlements on Arc testnet finalize in roughly 180ms (median 178ms, p95 240ms) via sub-second BFT finality, not block-time-bound. vs S2 x402 payments take about 15 seconds to settle, similar to Ethereum L1 block time, because each payment is its own transaction waiting to be mined. → reported preference: S1 (S1 reports directly measured median and p95 figures from thousands of submitBatch calls on Arc testnet and is internally consistent with Arc's BFT sub-second finality, whereas S2 describes a per-transaction block-mined model without measured median/p95 data.)

Evidence

Verified — S1 supports claim 1 at 90%: “Across thousands of submitBatch calls on Arc testnet, x402 batched settlements finalize in roughly 180 milliseconds (measured median 178ms, …”

Evidence

Verified — S1 supports claim 1 at 40%: “Arc's BFT consensus delivers sub-second finality, so a Gateway-batched payment confirms in well under a quarter second — it is not block-tim…”

Evidence

Below reward gate — S1 supports claim 2 at 10%: “Across thousands of submitBatch calls on Arc testnet, x402 batched settlements finalize in roughly 180 milliseconds (measured median 178ms, …”

Evidence

Below reward gate — S2 supports claim 2 at 10%: “In our reading, an x402 payment takes about 15 seconds to settle, similar to an Ethereum L1 block time, because each payment is its own tran…”

Evidence

Rejected 0 invalid evidence span(s) and 1 unsupported citation marker(s); rejected markers cannot receive citation rewards.

Synthesize

Drafted answer citing 1 source(s)

Verdict

Confidence: Low — 1 sub-claim remains below the evidence threshold.

Attribute

Arc Settlement Benchmarks contributed 100% → reward $0.015

Settle

Settled $0.015 citation reward → Arc Settlement Benchmarks (5a9ee4a3-8…)

Done

Done. Spent $0.015 across 1 confirmed/simulated payment(s) to creators.

Portable research receipt

Take the evidence trail with you

One deterministic JSON bundle binds the answer, visible decisions, exact article versions, claim evidence and a Circle-settlement snapshot under SHA-256. Retain the digest to detect later changes; the self-check is not a publisher or Keryx signature.

Exact receipt still current

1 exact cited article version still match Keryx's current index.

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